10 C- and 3 M-class flares were recorded over the last 24 hours. The existing delta structures in NOAA 1967 have further developed. The trailing portion of this region now consists of 2 big opposite polarity spots containing themselves spots of opposite polarity. The largest flares of the period (M2 and M4 peaking resp. at 08:20UT and 09:31UT) took place just north of these big spots. Extending to the northwest, an elongated delta structure of nearly 5 degrees long has further matured overnight. It
currently consists of several small spots of opposite polarity very close to each other. So far, it has produced only C-class flares. Another M2-flare peaked at 06:34UT. It was located just north of NOAA 1968’s trailing spot which has a magnetic delta structure.  The x-ray background has been all day above the C1-level.
In view of the various delta structures in NOAA 1967, there’s a good chance on a major X-class flare during the next 24-48 hours. Otherwise, active conditions are expected to continue.
Solar wind speed has been gradually increasing from 300 km/s to about 380 km/s since yesterday 08:45UT. Bz has been fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT, being mostly negative till 03:00UT. Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet. No shock of the M6 halo CME (30 January) has been detected so far, but the CME can still arrive during the following hours.
For the next period, quiet geomagnetic conditions with a slight chance on active levels are expected. On 4 February, Earth may receive a glancing blow from the partial halo CME that originated in NOAA 1968 (31 January).
SIDC

Equipment: Coronado 90 +  Imaging Source DMK  + LX75
Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 100 frames
Date: 02/02/14
Time UT: 17:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

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