The Sun online and solar activity. 13.10.2014

солнце 13 октября


There are only two sunspot groups currently visible on the solar disk, andno C flares occurred during the past 24 hours. In the next 48 hours,eruptive conditions (C flaring) are possible, especially from beta regionNOAA AR 2187. A bright CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field ofview at 00:00 UT on October 13. It had an angular width of about 90 degreesand is probably associated with an eruption in a backside region close tothe west limb. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective.Over the last 24hours, solar wind speed observed by ACE was low and fluctuated betweenabout 310 and 340 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field(IMF) first varied between 4 and 8.5 nT, and jumped from 5.5 to 9 nT around5:45 UT on October 13, possibly due to an unidentified ICME structure. Overthe past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 1and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4)are expected on October 13, 14 and 15, with a slight chance for activelevels (K Dourbes = 4) in the early hours of October 14 in case theglancing blow of the CME from October 10 encounters the Earth.