Category Archives: Our observatory

The Sun online and activity solar.25.10.2014

 

 

IDL TIFF file

 

The strongest flare observed on the Sun during the past 24 hours was the X3.1 flare peaking at 21:41 UT yesterday in the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). SOHO/LASCO data demonstrate that the flare was accompanied only with a very weak and narrow CME. No geomagnetic consequences are expected. Despite the decrease in the area of the Catania sunspot group 88, it maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, so we expect the flaring activity up to X-level from this sunspot group. As the Catania sunspot group 88 is currently situated close to the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. A long filament in the northern hemisphere is now crossing the solar central meridian. Its possible eruption may lead to an Earth-directed CME.The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 390 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.

Equipment: Coronado 90 +  Imaging Source DMK  + LX75
Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 300 frames
Date: 25/10/14
Exposure 1/500 sec.

Observatory Sponli

The Sun online and activity solar.25.10.2014

IDL TIFF file

Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) continues to grow and maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The strongest flare it produced during the past 24 hours was the M4.0 flare peaking at 07:48 UT today. This flare was accompanied only with a narrow CME that is not expected to arrive at the Earth. We expect the flaring activity up to X-level from this sunspot group. As the Catania sunspot group 88 is currently situated close to the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. A long filament in the northern hemisphere is approaching the solar central meridian. Its possible eruption may lead to an Earth-directed CME. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 430 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 6 nT) interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so, with isolated intervals of active conditions (K = 4) possible but unlikely.

The Sun online and activity solar

солнце 22 октября

INFO FROM SIDC – RWC BELGIUM 2014 Oct 22 12:44:19

 

INFO FROM SIDC – RWC BELGIUM 2014 Oct 22 12:44:19

 

Three M-class flares were detected in the past 24 hours, all of them

produced by the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). The strongest

flare was the M8.7 flare peaking at 01:59 UT. Based on the still incomplete

SOHO/LASCO data and the absence of conspicuous eruptive signatures in the

SDO/AIA data, we conclude that there was no CME associated with this flare.

We expect flaring activity mostly on the M-level in this group, with a good

chance for an X-class flare. As the Catania sunspot group 88 approaches the

solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to

a geoeffective CME and a proton event.The Earth is currently inside a slow

(around 460 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary

magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are

expected to remain so.

Three M-class flares were detected in the past 24 hours, all of them

produced by the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). The

The Sun online and solar activity. 21.10.2014

солнце 21

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2014 Oct 21 13:39:38

Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) continues to grow and maintains the
beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. It
produced four M-class flares in the past 24 hours, the strongest of them
being the M4.5 flare peaking at 16:37 UT. We expect flaring activity mostly
on the M-level in this group, with a good chance for an X-class flare. As
the Catania sunspot group 88 approaches the solar central meridian, a major
eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton
event. An active region at the north-east limb (no sunspots are still
visible) produced several flares including the C6.3 flare peaking at 10:58
UT today. It may produce an isolated M-class flare as well. A weak partial
halo CME (angular width around 200 degrees) was first seen in the
SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 19:12 UT on October 20. The CME was very
weak and disappeared before reaching the LASCO C3 field of view, so we do
not expect it to arrive at the Earth. The source region of the CME is the
eruption in the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) and in the region
to the south-west of it, starting around 18:40 UT, accompanied with coronal
dimmings and the M1.4 flare peaking at 19:02 UT. The solar wind speed is
currently high (around 640 km/s) and the interplanetary magnetic filed
(IMF) magnitude is around 7 nT. Due to elevated values of the IMF magnitude
and predominantly southward IMF direction, the K index reached 5 during one
interval yesterday evening (according to Dourbes, IZMIRAN, and NOAA).
Currently the north-south IMF component Bz is fluctuating around zero, so
we expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K < 4) in the coming
hours, possibly with isolated intervals of active conditions (K = 4).

The Sun online and solar activity.20.10.2014

солнце 20 октября
INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2014 Oct 20 13:00:17

Six sunspot groups are reported by Catania today. The main source of the
solar flaring activity is the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) that
is growing in size and complexity. Now it has beta-gamma-delta
configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. After yesterday's X1.1
flare, the strongest flare was the M3.9 flare peaking at 09:11 UT today.
This flare was not accompanied by a CME. We expect more flaring activity up
to X-level from this sunspot group. The Earth is currently inside a solar
wind flow with intermediate speeds (around 500-550 km/s). This flow might
be associated with a narrow low-latitude coronal hole that passed the solar
central meridian on October 17-18. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
magnitude was elevated (up to 9 nT), and the IMF was directed predominantly
southward during the last several hours. Intervals of active geomagnetic
conditions (K = 4) were reported by Dourbes and NOAA. We expect quiet to
active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

The Sun online and solar activity. 19.10.2014

картинка солнца 19 октября

During the past 24 hours, one X flare and nine C flares were released by beta-gamma region NOAA AR 2192. The long duration X1.1 flare peaked at 5:03 UT on October 19. It seems that the X flare was not accompanied by a CME. In the next 48 hours, X flares are possible, especially from AR 2192.Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speeds observed by ACE varied between about 355 and 515 km/s, with current speed values around 400 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 2 and 11 nT, with current values around 10 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to stay nominal until October 22, when they are likely to increase to well over 500 km/s due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. Geomagnetic conditions during the last 24 hours were quiet to active (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) with active excursions (K Dourbes = 4) are expected on October 19, 20 and 21.

The Sun online and solar activity 18.10.2014

солнце 18 октября

A faint halo CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 10:00 UT on October 17.

Based on the absence of corresponding events in SDO imagery, this CME is

probably backward, and will probably not become geo-effective.

The Sun online and solar activity 17.10.2014

солнце 17 октября

INFO FROM SIDC – RWC BELGIUM 2014 Oct 17 11:34:19

During the past 24 hours, one M flare and four C flares were released by the backside region close to the east limb that produced both M flares on October 14 (probably this region is the return of M-flaring region NOAA AR 2173). The M4.3 flare peaked at 13:03 UT on October 16. In the next 48 hours, M flares are possible, especially from the region near the east limb that has produced the three M flares.Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speeds observed by ACE varied between about 380 and 500 km/s, with current speed values around 435 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 1.5 and 7.5 nT, with current values around 5.5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions during the last 24 hours were quiet to active (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 17, 18 and 19.

The Sun online and solar activity. 16.10.2014

солнце 16 октября

A full halo CME was detected by LASCO C2 at 19:00 UT on October 14. Its main bulk propagated towards the southeast at an estimated speed of 923 km/s as measured on LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. This CME was associated with the M1.1 flare peaking at 18:37 UT, released by a backside region close to the east limb at 10 S (probably the return of M-flaring region NOAA AR 2173). The associated ICME is not expected to become geo-effective since it is backsided.

The Sun online and solar activity. 15.10.2014

солнце 15 октября

Two M flares occurred during the past 24 hours. The first, short duration,

M1.1 flare was released by a backside region close to the east limb at 10 S

(probably the return of M-flaring region NOAA AR 2173) and peaked at 18:37

UT on October 14. During the flare, very hot plasma (only visible in the

hottest SDO passbands) was ejected into space. The second M flare

corresponds to the post eruption arcade of the previous flare, started at

19:07 UT, reached its peak value of M2.2 at 21:21, and lasted until 00:19

UT on October 15. The GOES X ray flux curve has still not decreased to

background levels at the time of this forecast. The M1.1 flare is

associated with a halo CME first detected by LASCO C2 at 19:00 UT on

October 14. The CME had an angular width of about 270 degrees, with the

main bulk propagating towards the southeast at a speed of about 1700 km/s

according to the CACTUS software. The associated ICME is not expected to

become geo-effective since it is backsided. In the next 48 hours, M flares

are probable, especially from the region near the east limb that has

produced both M flares.Over the last 24 hours, solar wind speed observed by

ACE was highly variable between about 370 and 580 km/s, with current values

around 430 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)

varied between 2 and 16 nT, with current values around 4 nT. This may be

the effect of the arrival of the CME from October 10. NOAA Kp indicated a

minor geomagnetic storm between 18h UT on October 14 and 3h UT on October

  1. K Dourbes was above 3 from 17h till 21h UT and went to minor storm

values between 20h and 21h UT. This is the result of the increased solar

wind speed combined with Bz values below -10 nT or thereabouts. Quiet

geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 15, 16 and 17.