During the past 24 hours, one X flare and nine C flares were released by beta-gamma region NOAA AR 2192. The long duration X1.1 flare peaked at 5:03 UT on October 19. It seems that the X flare was not accompanied by a CME. In the next 48 hours, X flares are possible, especially from AR 2192.Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speeds observed by ACE varied between about 355 and 515 km/s, with current speed values around 400 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 2 and 11 nT, with current values around 10 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to stay nominal until October 22, when they are likely to increase to well over 500 km/s due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. Geomagnetic conditions during the last 24 hours were quiet to active (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) with active excursions (K Dourbes = 4) are expected on October 19, 20 and 21.
A full halo CME was detected by LASCO C2 at 19:00 UT on October 14. Its main bulk propagated towards the southeast at an estimated speed of 923 km/s as measured on LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. This CME was associated with the M1.1 flare peaking at 18:37 UT, released by a backside region close to the east limb at 10 S (probably the return of M-flaring region NOAA AR 2173). The associated ICME is not expected to become geo-effective since it is backsided.
FAST WARNING ‘PRESTO’ MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) 2014
The partial halo CME, first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 16:12 UT on October 10 was associated with the concurrent filament eruption (situated at about S30 W45) and long duration C3.0 flare (peaked at 16:47 UT). The CME had angular width of about 200 degrees and was propagating with the projected speed of about 400 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). The bulk of the CME mass was ejected south-west from the Sun-Earth line. The arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave is possible in the evening of October 14.