Tag Archives: magnetic storm

The Sun Online and solar activity. September 13, 2014

There are currently 6 sunspot groups visible on the solar disk. The most prominent groups, NOAA 2157 and 2158, are decaying. These groups still have spots of opposite magnetic polarity close to each other. A total of 7 C-class flares were recorded. The strongest flare of the period was a C3.3 peaking at 20:12UT. It occurred in an unnumbered sunspot region close to the southwest limb. NOAA 2166 is a small group embedded in a large plage area in the northeast quadrant, and produced only a C1 flare. Two filament eruptions were observed around 23:50UT and 03:40UT, but the associated CMEs were not Earth directed. Other CMEs, first observed by SOHO/LASCO on 12 September at 18:24UT and 21:48UT, were related to backside events and will not affect Earth. The proton event related to the X1 flare ended at 23:10UT.
Further C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an M-class flare. The arrival of the halo CME related to the X1 flare from 10 September was observed by SOHO/CELIAS as a shock in the solar wind on 12 September at 15:27UT. Wind speed increased abruptly from 430 to 670 km/s, and further
increased to a maximum of nearly 800 km/s around 22:00UT. Bz was oriented southward between 20:30 and 22:00UT with maximum values near -17nT, then abruptly turned northward to steady values around +20 nT. The period between 21:00UT and 24:00UT was geomagnetically the most intense, with Kp
reaching 7 (strong geomagnetic storm), and local K-indices at Dourbes and Potzdam reaching 6 (moderate storming). Geomagnetic conditions then quieted down, with currently unsettled to active conditions observed. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with locally a brief active period possible in the aftermath of yesterday’s geomagnetic storm.
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Equipment: Coronado 90 + Imaging Source DMK + LX75
Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 300 frames
Date: 13/08/14
Time UT: 16:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

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The Sun Online and solar activity. September 12, 2014

Over the last 24 hours, 2 M-class flares were produced by a currently unnumbered region at the northeast limb: an M2.1 flare peaking at 15:26UT, and an M1.4 flare peaking at 21:26UT. NOAA 2157 and 2158 produced 2 C-class flares each. The strongest was a C9.5 flare peaking at 02:24UT in NOAA
2157. Both of these regions have no longer a delta structure, but spots of opposite magnetic polarity are still close together. Based on the currently available imagery, no CMEs seem to have been associated to these flares. M-class flares are expected, with a chance on an X-class event.
On 11 September around 23:00UT, ACE observed a shock in the solar wind. Wind speed abruptly changed from about 350 to 480 km/s. Bz oscillated between -14 and +11nT. This was the arrival of the halo CME related to the M4-flare from 9 September. The impact resulted in active geomagnetic conditions (Dourbes), while Kp reached minor geomagnetic storm levels. Also the proton flux slightly increased. The arrival of the halo CME from the X1 flare is expected for later today. Pending the orientation of the CME’s magnetic field, this may result in a major geomagnetic storm, with locally severe geomagnetic storming possible.
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Equipment: Coronado 90 + Imaging Source DMK + LX75
Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 300 frames
Date: 12/08/14
Time UT: 16:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

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The Sun Online and solar activity. September 11, 2014

The X1.6 flare from 10 September was associated with an asymmetric full halo coronal mass ejection (CME). It was first seen by SOHO/LASCO at 18:00UT and had an average plane-of-the-sky speed of about 800 km/s. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth on 12 September around 21:00UT (+/-12
hours). It is not expected to interact with a previous halo CME from 9 September. Major to severe geomagnetic storming is expected, pending the orientation of the magnetic field of the plasma cloud.
Starting around 21:00UT (10 September), a gradual increase in proton flux has been observed. It is currently above the event threshold near 30 pfu. This is only a minor radiation event with limited consequences for HF communication in the polar regions.
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Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 300 frames
Date: 11/08/14
Time UT: 16:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

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The Sun Online and solar activity. September 9, 2014

There are currently 8 sunspot groups visible. NOAA 2157 seems to be slightly declining and simplifying. NOAA 2158 developed some small spots to the west and south of the main spot. Except for the northern part, this main spot is now completely surrounded by opposite magnetic polarity flux. Both NOAA 2157 and 2158 retained their delta structures. Two C-class flares and 1 M-class flare were recorded. The strongest event was a long duration M4.5 flare peaking at 00:29UT and originating in NOAA 2158. SDO/AIA-imagery indicated post-flare coronal loops, coronal dimming and an EIT-wave. A type II radio-burst with an associated shock speed of 999 km/s was observed. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, currently still enhanced at 2 pfu, has not increased in response to this flare (so far). The M4.5 flare was associated to a halo CME first observed by SOHO/LASCO on 9 September at 00:06UT, with a plane-of-the-sky speed around 560 km/s . The bulk of the CME is directed away from the Earth (to the northeast), but there’s still a good chance Earth will be impacted by the CME-driven shock. Estimated impact time is 12 September at 03:00UT, with an uncertainty of 12 hours.
There remains a reasonable chance on an M-class flare. The warning condition for a proton event remains in effect.
Solar wind speed was mostly between 350 and 450 km/s, with Bz oscillating between +5 and -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next three days, possibly modulated by the high speed stream from a coronal hole that passed the central meridian on 5 September. On 10 September, there’s a chance on unsettled conditions with an isolated active period in response to the possible glancing blow from the 6 September CME. On 12 September, the impact of the halo CME related to the M4.5 flare from 9 September may result in active conditions and possibly a brief period of minor
geomagnetic storming.
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Equipment: Coronado 90 + Imaging Source DMK + LX75
Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 300 frames
Date: 09/08/14
Time UT: 16:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

Observatory Sponli

The Sun Online and solar activity. August 28, 2014

Only two small C-class flares were observed in the past period. All active regions at the frontside are relatively stable. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. Flaring activity is expected to remain at the level of C-flares. A equatorial coronal hole has crossed the central meridian, which is likely to influence the solar wind conditions near Earth starting on August 30.The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field declined from 15 to 9 nT, with Bz mainly being southward. The solar wind speed is fluctuating between 300 and 380 km/s.
Geomagnetic activity reached active levels (local K=4 at Dourbes), with even an single time slot of minor storm level (NOAA Kp=5). A return to quiet to unsettled conditions is expected, till the potential arrival of a shock related to the August 25 CMEs later today.
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The Sun Online and solar activity. August 24, 2014

Solar activity continued to be low with a handful of C flares. The two most prominent were again, like yesterday, from NOAA AR 2146 and NOAA AR 2149. A C6 flare peaking at 17:27 UT originated from NOAA AR 2146 and a C5.5 flare peaking at 5:02 UT originated from NOAA AR 2149. Both were associated with eruptions but no earth directed CME’s were detected in coronagraph images. Low solar activity with C flares and a chance for an M flare is expected to continue.Solar wind conditions were nominal. Solar wind speed dropped steadily from around 310 km/s at the start of the reporting period to around 270 km/s currently. Total magnetic field was variable in the 1.5 to 6 nT range with Bz also variable in the +-4nT range. The phi angle was mostly positive (away). Geomagnetic conditions were quiet with a local unsettled period around UT noon August 23 (NOAA Kp=1 throughout the period while local K Dourbes between 0-3). Nominal solar wind conditions and quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue until the combined arrival of the August 22 CME’s expected from the afternoon of August 26 onwards. This may be associated with active geomagnetic conditions.
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The Sun Online and solar activity. August 20, 2014

There are 6 active regions on the visible side of the solar disk. Only NOAA AR 12146 (in NE quadrant) has shown a significant growth in the past 24 hours. We expect it will push up solar activity to C-class flaring levels, though further growth in size, complexity and thus flaring levels cannot be excluded. Note also that flaring activity is observed from behind the NE solar limb.Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected in the coming 3 days: there are no high speed wind streams expected from coronal holes, nor are there any new CMEs on the way to the Earth. The arrival yesterday (Aug 19) of the Aug 15 CME resulted in a Kp=6 episode. The Bz component of the IMF has now turned fully Northward, thereby ending the geomagnetic storm.
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Equipment: Coronado 90 + Imaging Source DMK + LX75
Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 300 frames
Date: 08/20/14
Time UT: 16:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

Observatory Sponli

The Sun Online and solar activity. August 19, 2014

Solar activity has been low with just two C flares at the start of the reporting period. The largest one was a C1.8 originating from NOAA AR 2147, peaking at 13:55 UT. The other one a C1.2 flare from NOAA AR 2139 peaking at 16:56 UT. No earth directed CME’s have been recorded. Solar activity is expected to remain at similar low levels over the next days. Solar wind conditions were steady and nominal until the arrival of a moderate shock this morning around 6:00 UT. Solar wind speed has increased since then from 290 km/s before the shock to around 380 km/s at present with a peak above 430 km/s in between. Total magnetic field increased from around to 7 nT to around 12nT presently with peaks above 13 nT. Bz was variable, mostly positive but with negative values peaking around -11nT. Temperature and density have also increased. The conditions are likely due to an earlier then expected arrival of the August 15 CME. Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet to unsettled so far (NOAA Kp mostly 1 but reaching K=3 just recently and local K Dourbes at most 2). Under the continued influence of the CME arrival, elevated solar wind conditions and periods of active geomagnetic conditions should be anticipated during the
following day, with minor geomagnetic storm conditions possible. These will settle afterwards to unsettled and quiet to unsettled conditions.
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Equipment: Coronado 90 + Imaging Source DMK + LX75
Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 300 frames
Date: 08/19/14
Time UT: 16:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

Observatory Sponli

The Sun Online and solar activity. August 11, 2014

There were two low C flares during the past 24 hours. The brightest flare (C1.6) was released by NOAA AR 2137 and peaked around 12:34 UT on August 10. In the next 48 hours, eruptive conditions (C flaring) are likely, especially from AR 2137, AR 2132, and from two unnumbered regions near the
East limb.Over the last 24 hours, solar wind speed as observed by ACE increased from about 300 to about 420 km/s, probably under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 8 and 11 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) except for one three-hour excursion of active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) between 18h and 21h UT on August 10. Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on August 11, 12, and 13, with possible excursions to active levels on August 13 due to the arrival of another coronal hole high speed stream.
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Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 300 frames
Date: 08/11/14
Time UT: 16:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

Observatory Sponli

The Sun Online and solar activity. August 3, 2014

The strongest flare over the last 24 hours was a C2.7 peaking on 2 August at 13:28UT and produced by NOAA 2132. Together with NOAA 2121 and 2134, it produced only low-level C-class flares. The two 25-degrees long filaments in the NE and SW quadrant remained stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.C-class flaring is expected, with a small chance on an M-class flare from NOAA 2130, 2132 and 2134. Solar wind speed decreased from an initial value near 450 km/s to about 390 km/s. Bz started out mostly negative near -8 nT, after which positive values dominated up to a maximum of 5 nT. There was no obvious signature in the solar wind parameters of a passing-by of the 30 July CME. Geomagnetic
conditions were initially unsettled in Dourbes, with Kp even briefly reaching 4. Afterwards, quiet to unsettled conditions prevailed.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet, with some unsettled conditions possible later today and tomorrow under the influence of a coronal hole stream and the possible glancing blow from a CME related to the M-flares on 1 August. Locally, a brief active episode is not excluded.
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Equipment: Coronado 90 + Imaging Source DMK + LX75
Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 300 frames
Date: 08/03/14
Time UT: 16:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

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