Tag Archives: magnetic storm

The Sun Online and solar activity. June 24, 2014

A C2.1 flare peaked at 00:29 UT today. It originated behind the limb at Catania 92 (NOAA AR 2092 and 2087) which rotated over the west limb today. A CME seems to be related to this flare, but there is no coronagraph, nor any STEREO-A data (data gap) to confirm, this should not be Earth directed in any case. More flaring activity at the C-class level can be expected from this AR (before it disappears completely from the visible side of the Sun), from Catania 89 and 90 (NOAA AR 2093, even though it  has lost its beta gamma configuration) and Catania 92 (NOAA AR 2096) and Catania 93 (NOAA AR 2097), which are growing in size.
A partial halo CME erupted at 06:12 UT (first seen by LASCO-C2, after a data gap), with an angular width of about 100 degrees and speed of 1000 km/s. This event is backsided, the eruption started in the south west of
the the Sun as seen by STEREO-A, the bulk of the material is directed towards the south and it is not  expected to arrive to the Earth.A shock was detected at ACE on June 23 at 22:00 UT, it corresponds to the expected glancing blow of the CME from June 19. The speed jumped to 400 km/s while the magnetic field intensity did not reach 10 nT. Therefore, only unsettled geomagnetic conditions occurred. The arrival of the CME from June 20 is expected later on today with possible active to minor storm levels. A glancing blow from the CME on June 21 can be expected tomorrow, causing active conditions at most.
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The Sun Online and solar activity. June 21, 2014

Two halo CMEs were detected by SOHO/LASCO. A very weak partial halo CME (angular width around 270 degrees, projected plane-of-the-sky speed around 350 km/s) first appeared in the LASCO C2 field of view at 12:24 UT on June 20. It was associated with the C5.0 flare peaking at 11:20 UT in the Catania sunspot group 89. Another partial halo CME (angular width around  160 degrees, projected plane-of-the-sky speed around 300 km/s) was first seen in the LASCO C2 field of view at 05:24 UT on June 21. It was associated with a filament eruption at the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. The first halo CME was more symmetric with respect to the coronagraph occulter, so we expect the arrival of the corresponding ICME on June 24, possibly resulting in a minor geomagnetic storm (K = 5). The second halo CME was mostly directed to the north of the ecliptic plane, so we expect at most a glancing blow of a corresponding ICME on June 25 without significant geomagnetic disturbances.
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Equipment: Coronado 90 +  Imaging Source DMK  + LX75
Processing: Photoshop
Date: 06/21/14
Time UT: 16:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

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The Sun Online and solar activity. June 20, 2014

Six sunspot groups were reported by Catania today. Only three C-class flares took place during the past 24 hours, and all of them occurred in the Catania sunspot group 89 (that, together with the Catania sunspot group 90, constitutes the NOAA AR 2093). The strongest flare of this time interval was the C5.0 flare peaking today at 11:20 UT. The flare was accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post-eruption arcade indicating the eruption of a CME. However, no coronagraph data are available at the moment to confirm the CME occurrence. We expect further flaring activity on the C-level, mostly from this sunspot group, with an M-class flare being possible but not very likely. A partial halo CME was detected by  SOHO/LASCO on June 19, first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view at 19:24 UT (first frame after a long data gap). The CME had the angular width of around 190 degrees and projected plane-of-the-sky speed of around 400 km/s. The CME was produced by the eruption of a filament to the north of the Catania sunspot groups 89 and 90 (together constituting the NOAA AR 2093), starting around 14:25 UT as seen by SDO/AIA. The eruption was also accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post-erution arcade. It was followed by a perhaps related C4.0 flare peaking at 19:24 UT in the Catania sunspot group 89. This flare was, in turn, accompanied by a narrow CME first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view at 19:48 UT. This narrow CME is not expected to arrive at the Earth. An interplanetary disturbance associated with the  partial halo CME is expected to arrive at the Earth late on June 23 or early on June 24, most probably only with a glancing blow. It may result in active to perhaps minor storm geomagnetic conditions. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 430 km/s) solar wind flow with slightly elevated (around 6 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.
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Equipment: Coronado 90 +  Imaging Source DMK  + LX75
Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 300 frames
Date: 06/20/14
Time UT: 16:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

Observatory Sponli

  

The Sun Online and solar activity. June 19, 2014

During the past 24 hours, only three C-class flares were reported, and all of them were weak (below C2 level). NOAA AR 2089 has the beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, but it produced only one
C-class flare during this period. We expect flaring activity to continue on the C-level, in particular in NOAA ARs 2087 and 2089, as well as in the newly emerged NOAA AR 2095. Yesterday evening the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude reached 10 nT, with intervals of negative north-south IMF component. Active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions were reported (Kp = 5 by NOAA, K = 5 by IZMIRAN, K = 4 by Dourbes). Currently the Earth is inside a slow (around 440 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) IMF magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.
SIDC

Equipment: Coronado 90 +  Imaging Source DMK  + LX75
Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 300 frames
Date: 06/19/14
Time UT: 16:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

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The Sun Online and solar activity. June 8, 2014

The shock arrival at 16:10 UT on 7 June, related to the filament eruption on 4 June, resulted in geomagnetic storm conditions. Local K-index at Dourbes went to K=5 and estimated NOAA Kp even reached K=6 on the UT
morning of 8 June. Geomagnetic storm conditions are expected to continue in the next few hours to return to quiet to unsettled conditions on 9 June.
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The Sun Online and solar activity. May 25, 2014

There were five C flares and an M flare during the past 24 hours, all released by NOAA AR 12065. The long duration M1.3 flare peaked at 18:35 UT on May 24. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. STEREO COR2 B imagery registered a CME at 23:09 UT on May 24, but this CME was probably associated to a backside event. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is very high (95%) and for M flares around 60%, especially from NOAA AR 12065.Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed as observed by ACE decreased from around 450 km/s to about 430 km/s. Meanwhile the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 2 and 4 nT. Over the last 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 1
and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on May 25 and 27. Quiet geomagnetic conditions with active (K Dourbes = 4) periods are possible on May 26, due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
SIDC

Equipment: Coronado 90 +  Imaging Source DMK  + LX75
Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 300 frames
Date: 05/25/14
Time UT: 17:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

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The Sun Online and solar activity. May 24, 2014

There were two low C flares during the past 24 hours. The brightest one was a C1.1 flare released by NOAA AR 12065, peaking at 9:13 UT on May 24. No new CMEs were observed. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (85%) and for M flares around 20%, especially from NOAA AR 12071, 12072, 12073, and 12065.Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed as observed by ACE decreased from around 500 km/s to about 450 km/s. Meanwhile the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) decreased from 12 to 3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were active (K Dourbes = 4) from 18h until 23h UT on May 23, and there was a minor geomagnetic storm (K Dourbes = 5) from 23h until 1h UT. Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) prevailed over the rest of the last 24 hours. NOAA Kp was equal to 4 from 15h until 21h UT on May 23, and equal to 5 from 21h to 0h UT. Quiet geomagnetic levels are expected on May 24 and 25. Quiet geomagnetic conditions with active periods are possible on May 26, due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
SIDC

Equipment: Coronado 90 +  Imaging Source DMK  + LX75
Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 30 frames
Date: 05/24/14
Time UT: 18:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

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The Sun Online and solar activity. May 23, 2014

There were four low C flares during the past 24 hours. The brightest one was a C1.5 flare released by NOAA AR 12065 with peak time at 04:58 UT on May 23. No new CMEs were observed. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (85%, from NOAA AR 12071, 12072, 12073, 12065, and 12066) and for M flares around 25%, especially from NOAA AR 12071 and 12065.Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed as observed by ACE was around 350 km/s until it suddenly jumped to about 500 km/s around 3h30 UT
on May 23. This was probably due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. Meanwhile the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) had increased from 5 nT to about 12 nT. Over the past 24 hours,
geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) due to the IMF’s positive Bz angle. As an effect of the high speed stream, quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) with active (K Dourbes = 4) to minor storm (K Dourbes = 5) periods are expected on May 23 and 24. Quiet conditions are expected on May 25.
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The Sun Online and solar activity. May 22, 2014

There was one C6.4 flare during the past 24 hours, released by NOAA AR 12072 with peak time at 03:10 UT on May 22. No new CMEs were observed. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (85%, from NOAA AR 12071, 12072, 12073, and 12066) and for M flares around 20%, especially from NOAA AR 12071 and 12072.Around 19h UT on May 21, the phi angle of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) as observed by ACE changed from positive (away) to negative (toward), indicating an expected sector boundary crossing. At the same time, the magnitude of the IMF which had been fairly constant between 4 and 5 nT started fluctuating in a generally rising trend with current values reaching 8 nT. Over the last 24 hours, the
solar wind speed was steady and low around 320 km/s until 9h UT on May 22, when it started increasing, probably due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. Current values lie around 370 km/s.
Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2). As an effect of the sector boundary crossing and the high speed stream arrival, quiet geomagnetic
levels (K Dourbes < 4) with active periods (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on May 22 and 23. Quiet conditions are expected on May 24, with a slight chance for active conditions in case the Earth suffers a glancing blow from the CME of May 21.
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The Sun Online and solar activity. May 8, 2014

Catania group 36 (NOAA AR 2051), which already turned behind the west limb, produced another M1.2 flare, peaking at 16:29 UT. Activity is now shifting to the eastern hemisphere where Catania group 34 (NOAA AR 2056) produced the biggest flare of the past 24 hours, an M5.3 flare peaking at 10:07 UT.
In thh hour before, X-ray flux was already increased by enhanced emission from the east limb, associated with expected returning NOAA AR 2046. Further flaring in the C level is expected over the coming days especially from the regions on the eastern hemisphere with chances for M flares. The M1.2 flare originating from NOAA AR 2051 (Catania group 36) was associated with a partial halo CME. It was detected by CACTus combined with a number of preceding CME’s (and therefore incorrectly classified as full
halo) but the main component is first visible in LASCO data at 16:24 UT. Another, full halo, CME, first visible in LASCO data at 3:24 UT seems to originate from the same region, with hence the bulk of the mass expelled in western direction form the Sun Earth line with projected speeds of around 800km/s as seen from STEREO A. Given the location of the source region around the limb both CME’s are not expected to be geoeffective.A fast forward shock was observed in ACE solar wind data around 21:35 UT May 7.
Solar wind speed jumped from about 330 km/s to about 380 km/s and total magnetic field jumped from around 5 nT to above 8nT. Density and temperature also increased. The shock was possibly a late signature of the May 3 CME. Bz was negative and increasing in magnitude after that event to almost -12nT. It has been varying between -12nT and +10nT afterwards. Wind speed was fluctuating around the 340 km/s level.

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet up to the shock arrival. Afterwards, active geomagnetic conditions were observed: NOAA Kp increased to 4 for the 3-6UT interval, local K Dourbes has been at K=4 level since 7 UT. The active geomagnetic conditions are expected to first settle down although unsettled (and possibly active) conditions may accompany the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream later on.
SIDC

Equipment: Coronado 90 +  Imaging Source DMK  + LX75
Processing: Photoshop, Avistack 300 frames
Date: 05/08/14
Time UT: 14:00
Exposure 1/500 sec.

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