There are currently 9 sunspot groups visible. Only 2 low-level C-class flares were observed over the last 24 hours, both having NOAA 2157 as their source. This active region still has a delta in its main trailing spot. NOAA 2158 seems to have lost its delta structure, and has not produced any flares. The other sunspot groups are quiet. Two active regions are approaching the east limb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is still slightly enhanced and is currently at 1 pfu. It continues its slow decline.
C-class flares are expected, with a chance on another M-class event. Solar wind speed was mostly between 350 and 400 km/s, with Bz varying between +6 and -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected on 10 and most of 11September, possibly modulated by the high speed stream from a coronal hole that passed the central meridian on 5 September, and a glancing blow from the 6 September CME. Locally, an isolated active period is possible. Late on 11 and on 12 September, the impact of the halo CME related to the M4.5 flare from 9 September may result in active conditions and possibly a brief period of minor geomagnetic storming.
There are currently 8 sunspot groups visible. NOAA 2157 seems to be slightly declining and simplifying. NOAA 2158 developed some small spots to the west and south of the main spot. Except for the northern part, this main spot is now completely surrounded by opposite magnetic polarity flux. Both NOAA 2157 and 2158 retained their delta structures. Two C-class flares and 1 M-class flare were recorded. The strongest event was a long duration M4.5 flare peaking at 00:29UT and originating in NOAA 2158. SDO/AIA-imagery indicated post-flare coronal loops, coronal dimming and an EIT-wave. A type II radio-burst with an associated shock speed of 999 km/s was observed. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, currently still enhanced at 2 pfu, has not increased in response to this flare (so far). The M4.5 flare was associated to a halo CME first observed by SOHO/LASCO on 9 September at 00:06UT, with a plane-of-the-sky speed around 560 km/s . The bulk of the CME is directed away from the Earth (to the northeast), but there’s still a good chance Earth will be impacted by the CME-driven shock. Estimated impact time is 12 September at 03:00UT, with an uncertainty of 12 hours. There remains a reasonable chance on an M-class flare. The warning condition for a proton event remains in effect. Solar wind speed was mostly between 350 and 450 km/s, with Bz oscillating between +5 and -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next three days, possibly modulated by the high speed stream from a coronal hole that passed the central meridian on 5 September. On 10 September, there’s a chance on unsettled conditions with an isolated active period in response to the possible glancing blow from the 6 September CME. On 12 September, the impact of the halo CME related to the M4.5 flare from 9 September may result in active conditions and possibly a brief period of minor geomagnetic storming. SIDC
Eight C-class flares were produced, mainly by Catania sunspot group 45, 44 and 40 (NOAA AR 2157, 2155 and 2152 respectively). The strongest flare was a C6.7 flare, peaking at 6:54 UT on September 5, originating from Catania group 45. A partial halo CME (apparent width of about 120 degrees), with first measurement at 7:12 UT in SOHO/LASCO C2, was associated with this flare. The CME is travelling East of the Sun-Earth line with a projected plane-of-the-sky speed of 650 km/s and is notexpected to arrive at Earth. We expect flaring activity up to the M-level, in particular from the Catania groups 44 and 45 and the former NOAA AR 2139. The solar proton flux currently remains stable below the SEP event threshold. We maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 370 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so. SIDC
The Sun produced several small C-class flares, originating from NOAA AR 2146, AR 2149 and AR 2152. AR 2146 has now rotated around the West limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected. More C-class flares are expected, with a slight chance for M-class flares. Solar wind speed values ranges between 400 and 450 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field remained relatively stable around 6 to 7 nT, while Bz is fluctuating between -6 and +6 nT. Geomagnetic conditions are unsettled to active and are expected remain so for the next 48 hours, due to the influence of the increased solar wind related to the equatorial coronal hole. SIDC
There are 8 relatively small sunspot groups visible. NOAA 2127, still close to the southeast limb, and NOAA 2126 produced each one C1.2 flare (peaking resp. at 14:18UT yesterday and at 11:45UT today). Both regions seem to have some mixed magnetic polarity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Some 10-20 degrees long filaments are observed in the NE, SE and NW solar quadrant, as well as in NOAA 2121. There’s a chance on further C-class flaring, in particular from NOAA 2127 and 2126. An eruption of one of the filaments is possible. A disturbance was observed in ACE solar wind data starting shortly after 03:00UT. Over the next four hours, wind speed gradually increased from 350 to 430 km/s, while Bz varied between +11 and -8 nT, being mostly positive near the end of the period. The geomagnetic field was unsettled to locally active in response to this disturbance. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with locally an active period possible. SIDC
Six sunspot groups were reported by Catania today. Only three C-class flares took place during the past 24 hours, and all of them occurred in the Catania sunspot group 89 (that, together with the Catania sunspot group 90, constitutes the NOAA AR 2093). The strongest flare of this time interval was the C5.0 flare peaking today at 11:20 UT. The flare was accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post-eruption arcade indicating the eruption of a CME. However, no coronagraph data are available at the moment to confirm the CME occurrence. We expect further flaring activity on the C-level, mostly from this sunspot group, with an M-class flare being possible but not very likely. A partial halo CME was detected by SOHO/LASCO on June 19, first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view at 19:24 UT (first frame after a long data gap). The CME had the angular width of around 190 degrees and projected plane-of-the-sky speed of around 400 km/s. The CME was produced by the eruption of a filament to the north of the Catania sunspot groups 89 and 90 (together constituting the NOAA AR 2093), starting around 14:25 UT as seen by SDO/AIA. The eruption was also accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post-erution arcade. It was followed by a perhaps related C4.0 flare peaking at 19:24 UT in the Catania sunspot group 89. This flare was, in turn, accompanied by a narrow CME first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view at 19:48 UT. This narrow CME is not expected to arrive at the Earth. An interplanetary disturbance associated with the partial halo CME is expected to arrive at the Earth late on June 23 or early on June 24, most probably only with a glancing blow. It may result in active to perhaps minor storm geomagnetic conditions. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 430 km/s) solar wind flow with slightly elevated (around 6 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so. SIDC
Several C-class and two M-class flares were reported in last 24 hours. The strongest one was the impulsive M1.4 flare which peaked at 19:29 UT on June 14. The flare originated from the active region just behind the east solar limb and was associated with the type II radio burst (indicating the shock wave speed of about 400 km/s). The associated CME was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 19:48 UT and had projected plane of the sky speed of about 600 km/s. The angular width of the CME was about 100 degrees and the bulk of the CME mass was directed south-east from the Sun-Earth line, therefore we do not expect this CME to arrive at the Earth. The C9.0 flare (peaked at 20:17 UT) on June 13 which originated from the Catania sunspot group 81 (NOAA AR 2087) was associated with narrow CME first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 20:36 UT. We expect C-class and possibly also M-class flares in the coming hours.The solar wind speed is still about 400 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has presently value of about 5 nT. Late today we expect the arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave, associated with a partial halo CME from June 12. The arrival of the fast flow associated with the small low latitude coronal hole (between S20 and S40) which reached the central meridian late on June 12, might be expected early tomorrow (June 16). Arrival of both, CME-driven shock wave and the fast flow is possible but not very probable. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expect to remain so in the coming hours. SIDC
The complex and long duration M3.1 flare (peaking at 22:16 UT) on June 12 was associated with an EIT wave, type II radio burst (estimated shock wave speed is about 1700 km/s) and a partial halo CME. The CME was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 22:12 UT, had the angular width of 200 degrees and the projected plane of the sky speed of 600 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). The bulk of the CME mass was ejected south-west from the Sun-Earth line. The arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave is possible but not very probable in the evening of June 15. SIDC
During last 24 hours four M-class flares were reported, and the strongest one was a M2.7 flare which originated from the Catania sunspot group 81 (NOAA AR 2087). The flare peaked at 10:21 UT on June 12 and was possibly associated with the CME (based on SDO/AIA data). More will be reported as soon as coronagraph data become available. The X1.0 flare (peaking at 09:06 UT) on June 11, M3.9 flare (peaking at 21:03 UT) on June 11 and the M2.0 flare (peaking at 04:21 UT) on June 12 were associated with narrow CMEs which will therefore not arrive at the Earth. The faint halo CME first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 14:36 UT, on June 10 had angular width of about 270 degrees. The bulk of the CME mass was directed northward from the Sun-Earth line. Currently available data give no indications about possible on disc signatures of the CME. We do not expect this CME to arrive at the Earth. The faint partial halo CME first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 18:00 UT, on June 10 had angular width of about 180 degrees and the bulk of the CME mass directed north-east from the Sun-Earth line. From the currently available data it seems that the CME was associated with the flare at E170 as seen from the Earth, and will therefore not arrive at the Earth. We expect C-class, M-class and X-class flares in the coming hours, in particular from the Catania sunspot groups 81, 69 and 76 (NOAA AR 2087, 2080 and 2085, respectively). Due to the position of the Catania sunspot groups 69 and 76 (NOAA AR 2080 and 2085, respectively) on the western solar hemisphere, we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is still inside the fast solar wind (speed of about 500 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are at the moment quiet and expected to remain so in the following hours. The glancing blow associated with the halo CME from June 10 is expected to arrive at the Earth in the morning of June 13, and it might result in active geomagnetic conditions. SIDC
Image Credit & Copyright: Alan Friedman (Averted Imagination)
Our Sun has become quite a busy place. Taken only two weeks ago, the Sun was captured sporting numerous tumultuous regions including active sunspot regions AR 2036 near the image top and AR 2036near the center. Only four years ago the Sun was emerging from an unusually quiet Solar Minimum that had lasted for years. The above image was recorded in a single color of light called Hydrogen Alpha, inverted, and false colored. Spicules cover much of the Sun’s face like a carpet. The gradual brightening towards the Sun’s edges is caused by increased absorption of relatively cool solar gas and called limb darkening. Just over the Sun’s edges, several filamentary prominences protrude, while prominences on the Sun’s face are seen as light streaks. Possibly the most visually interesting of all are the magnetically tangled active regions containing relatively cool sunspots, seen as white dots. Currently at Solar Maximum — the most active phase in its 11-year magnetic cycle, the Sun’s twisted magnetic field is creating numerous solar “sparks” which include eruptive solar prominences, coronal mass ejections, and flares which emit clouds of particles that may impact the Earth and cause auroras. One flare two years ago released such a torrent of charged particles into the Solar System that it might have disrupted satellites and compromised power grids had it struck planet Earth.