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The Sun online and solar activity. 15.10.2014

солнце 15 октября

Two M flares occurred during the past 24 hours. The first, short duration,

M1.1 flare was released by a backside region close to the east limb at 10 S

(probably the return of M-flaring region NOAA AR 2173) and peaked at 18:37

UT on October 14. During the flare, very hot plasma (only visible in the

hottest SDO passbands) was ejected into space. The second M flare

corresponds to the post eruption arcade of the previous flare, started at

19:07 UT, reached its peak value of M2.2 at 21:21, and lasted until 00:19

UT on October 15. The GOES X ray flux curve has still not decreased to

background levels at the time of this forecast. The M1.1 flare is

associated with a halo CME first detected by LASCO C2 at 19:00 UT on

October 14. The CME had an angular width of about 270 degrees, with the

main bulk propagating towards the southeast at a speed of about 1700 km/s

according to the CACTUS software. The associated ICME is not expected to

become geo-effective since it is backsided. In the next 48 hours, M flares

are probable, especially from the region near the east limb that has

produced both M flares.Over the last 24 hours, solar wind speed observed by

ACE was highly variable between about 370 and 580 km/s, with current values

around 430 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)

varied between 2 and 16 nT, with current values around 4 nT. This may be

the effect of the arrival of the CME from October 10. NOAA Kp indicated a

minor geomagnetic storm between 18h UT on October 14 and 3h UT on October

  1. K Dourbes was above 3 from 17h till 21h UT and went to minor storm

values between 20h and 21h UT. This is the result of the increased solar

wind speed combined with Bz values below -10 nT or thereabouts. Quiet

geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 15, 16 and 17.


The Sun Online and solar activity. 11.10.2014

солнце 11 октября


The partial halo CME, first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 16:12 UT on October 10 was associated with the concurrent filament eruption (situated at about S30 W45) and long duration C3.0 flare (peaked at 16:47 UT). The CME had angular width of about 200 degrees and was propagating with the projected speed of about 400 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). The bulk of the CME mass was ejected south-west from the  Sun-Earth line. The arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave is possible in the evening of October 14.

Sun online. Solar activity

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Solar activity is very low, with only three C-class flare reported during last 24 hours. The strongest flare was the C1.6 flare (peaked at 16:00 UT on October 07) originating from the not yet classified active region at about N15 E25. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. We expect solar activity to remain low with occasional C-class flares.ACE solar wind data indicate possible arrival of the sector boundary or ICME (solar origin is not yet understood). The sector change was observed at about 05:30 UT this morning. The  Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating and it had few intervals of negative value (up to – 8 nT). Simultaneously to the longest interval of negative Bz (about 4 hours) the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field had reached the value of about 10 nT. Currently the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT and the solar wind speed is still low with the value of about 350 km/s. Due to negative intervals of Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field we have currently active geomagnetic conditions (K=4 reported by local station at Dourbes). We expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions to continue in the coming hours.

Sun online.Solar activity 08.10.2014


The flaring activity during last 24 hours was on the low C-class level. Thestrongest flare reported was the C 3.0 flare (peaking at 17:07 UT onOctober 06), originating from the Catania sunspot group 69 (NOAA AR 2185)at that moment situated close to the east solar limb. The flare wasaccompanied with the coronal dimming and the CME first seen in the SOHOLASCO C2 field of view at 17:12 UT. The CME had angular width of about 110degrees and the projected speed of about 350 km/s (as reported by CACTUSsoftware package). This CME will not arrive at the Earth. We expect flaringof the C-class level in the coming hours.The Earth is currently inside aslow solar wind with the speed of 350 km/s. The interplanetary magneticfield is stable with the magnitude of about 4 nT. The geomagneticconditions are quiet and expect to remain so during the following hours.

Sun online.Solar activity 07.10.2014




Solar activity is low. The strongest flare reported during last 24 hours was the C1.5 flare with the peak time at 16:56 UT, on October 05. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 63 (NOAA AR 2177) currently situated close to the west solar limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. We expect C-class flares. An isolated M-class flare from the Catania sunspot group 64 (NOAA AR 2181) which has beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, is possible but not very probable.The solar wind speed is currently 400 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to remain so in the following 48 hours.

Sun online. Solar activity. 05.10.2014







Four low-level C-class flares were recorded. The strongest was a C1.9

peaking at 22:15UT and produced by NOAA 2172 from behind the west limb. The

x-ray background flux has decreased below the C1-level. There are currently

8 sunspot groups visible on the solar disk. Most of them are fairly simple,

and contain a filament or are close to one. Further C-class flaring is

expected. A 20-degrees long, thin, but dynamical s-shaped filament has

rounded the southeast limb. This area seems to have been responsible for a

filament eruption on 03 October between 03:00 and 04:30UT. The associated

CME was not directed to Earth.


Solar wind speed increased from about 330 to 370 km/s. Bz was initially

fluctuating around 0 nT untill about 05:00UT, when it gradually increased

to the current +10 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled, and

are expected to remain so, with locally an active episode possible.


Sun online. 06.10.2014




The only C-class event of the period was a C1 flare peaking at 09:54UT and

produced by NOAA 2178. The 7 groups currently visible on the solar disk

have a relatively simple magnetic configuration and have been quiet.

Numerous filaments are present on the solar disk, but they are mostly small

and quiet. There remains a chance on an C-class flare. No obvious CMEs were

observed during the period.


A corotating interaction region has influenced the solar wind since late on

3 October. Around 17:00UT on 4 October, the direction of the IMF turned

towards the Sun, and solar wind speed peaked near values of 480 km/s early

on 5 October. Bz was mostly positive, fluctuating between -5 and +10 nT

during the latter half of the observation period. Geomagnetic conditions

were quiet to unsettled and are expected to remain so.

The Sun Online and solar activity. october 03.10.2014

UPH20141001154003INFO FROM SIDC – RWC BELGIUM 2014 Oct 02 12:07:29

There are currently 9 sunspot groups on the solar disk, but all are quiet. No C-class flares were recorded, with the x-ray flux varying between the C1.0 and C3.2 level (21:10UT). No earth directed CMEs were observed. A filament eruption occurred near the Central Meridian (30 degrees north) around 06:00UT, but analysis of the geo-effectiveness of any related CME is pending the availability of coronagraphic imagery. The two big filaments in the western hemisphere remained quiet. C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare. Solar wind speed was stable around 380 km/s. Bz varied between -6 and +5nT. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed and are expected to remain so, with an active episode possible.